"No significant threat left": Asteroid 2024 YR4 now has only 0.004% risk of hitting Earth

There is reason to be reassured. NASA indicated on Monday, February 24, that asteroid 2024 YR4 now has a 0.004% risk of hitting Earth, compared to 0.28% according to the latest estimates dated February 20. A figure that has been falling in recent days: this probability had risen to 3.1% just a week ago, on February 18. A "very low but notable" figure, the American agency noted at the time.

Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered in December 2024 , has a diameter of between 40 and 90 meters. For the American agency, "the asteroid no longer poses any significant threat to Earth in 2032 and beyond." This is explained by "the latest observations that have further reduced the uncertainty of its trajectory."

Scientists "were able to calculate more accurate models of the asteroid's trajectory and have now found that there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet in the next century."

However, all risk has not yet been swept away, because "there is still a very small chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 will impact the Moon on December 22, 2032", according to NASA, which specifies that "this probability is currently 1.7%".

But the American space agency wants to reassure: they will continue to observe the asteroid 2024 YR4 in the coming years via a powerful telescope based in Chile.